This is Chicago's Sports Son and I am now coming to you from Atlanta. It's been a while, this I know, but things happen, schedules get busy, and the blog takes a back seat. Right now I am going to use this blog as a supplement to Mustache Sports, which I contribute to weekly. This week's NCAA football picks were, for one reason or another, not posted on Mustache, so here they are for "entertainment purposes only."
No in depth analysis last week, and let me start off by apologizing to my one reader for that. But maybe I should just throw my picks into space more often because yours truly went 5-1 last week and made up for my 3-4 record back in week 6. Damn Texas. Who would have thought Oklahoma would beat them like they were responsible for this Barry Switzer picture?
Give the guy his Selmons brother statue if it means that much to him.
Week 7’s 5-1 record does not come without some controversy. But I probably wasn’t the only one throwing a party when South Carolina took a safety against Mississippi St, and you know what? It was damn deserved. That is the only thing the good Ole’ Ball Coach Steve Spurrier has ever done for me. And speaking of South Carolina, who was in the camp that simply thought Stephen Garcia was bad at football? Now he is being investigated for point shaving? That explains all the booze and drugs; the guy had things to celebrate and money to blow (see what I did there?).
But on to week 8 we go and quite honestly it’s not the best slate of games. In fact Sef Sam Holy and I disagreed on which to cover, but the fact that he left the Notre Dame/USC game out of the mix for his downtrodden and underperforming Florida State Seminoles who play a terrible Maryland team, is bordering on blasphemy.
USC +8 ½ @ Notre Dame
The Gold Domers again started the season with a ton of hype but after losing two very winnable games to two inferior teams, the story in South Bend has an all too familiar comeback theme. But unlike previous years, Brian Kelly’s squad does not seem to be falling subject to an up and down roller coaster of Jekyll and Hyde type play. Instead however, Quarterback Tommy Rees and his safety valve future first round pick Michael Floyd have Notre Dame on the right track towards a respectable bowl game. The thought was that it was Notre Dame’s defense that would keep them in games as the young offense still learned Coach Kelly’s system, but the secondary has failed Notre Dame not just in the passing game (Michigan) but also in support of the running game (Air Force). This has led to the Irish giving up 21 points a week, which is still a respectable 31st in the country, but not nearly, the standard that was expected. The brightest spot on this side of the ball is the young Manti Te’o who has learned on the job as well as anybody and earned recognition from Sports Illustrated as a midseason first team All-American.
So Lane Kiffin and his Trojans’ best bet to stay in this game will be to focus on that Barkley/Woods connection down field to expose the less than stellar Notre Dame secondary. And Barkley will need to feed guys like Woods and Marqise Lee the ball because after their stellar pair of tight ends, Rhett Ellison and Xavier Grimble get hit a couple of times going across the middle, they aren’t going to want to again. And the fact is, that if Notre Dame makes USC’s already one dimensional offense have to focus that dimension on the flats and outer curls, then the slight Robert Woods gets even easier to defend. And I normally do not like this big of a line in a rivalry game, but am going to have to take Touchdown Jesus and the points; if for nothing else, because Lane Kiffin gets out coached every time he steps onto a football field. NOTRE DAME
6Wisconsin -7 @ 16Michigan State
Wisconsin got absolutely no love from the BCS which we all kind of expected, but the fact of the matter is that they are good, plain and simple. The badgers have the most balanced attack in the nation and score the most points at 50 a game, but are extremely hindered in the eyes of the computer because of how “down” the BigTen is this year. And with the Spartans representing seemingly the toughest game left on their schedule, with only an impending conference championship to supplement that, Wisconsin needs to win big in East Lansing. And nobody understands that more than Coach Bret Bielema, so you can expect him to never take his foot off the gas.
And do not be fooled by State’s win over in state rival Michigan last week. The fact that the Wolverines came into that game ranked 11 in the country is a joke. What I did come out of that game with, however, is the fact that Kirk Cousins makes damn good decisions. Battling extreme wind he chose to simply get rid of the football at all the right times and managed not to turn it over, and with 50mph gusts, that is NOT an easy task. But neither is a matchup with Wisconsin’s stout D boasting points against at less than 10 a game (9.7).
The Badgers will hit them hard, they will hit them early, and they will cover 7 points easily. WISCONSIN
25Washington +20 ½ @ 8Stanford
Washington has not played a single opponent yet this year that even measures up to half of the talent of Stanford. Apparently Andrew Luck is the second coming of John Elway, but I am more prone to simply say that he is a heady quarterback that never allows the game situation get away from him. He throws the ball all over the field having already connected with 16 different teammates and has 18 touchdowns to 3 interceptions on the season. Add the fact that Luck has only been sacked twice all year, is surrounded by 5 different running backs who have scored touchdowns and the Stanford defense only gives up 11 points a game, and it is obvious to see that this will be a no contest. Stanford covers. STANFORD
INTRIGUE OF THE WEEK
SMU +3 @ Southern Miss
SMU has a damn good passing attack. Quarterback JJ McDermott has thrown for 1,840 yards this year and 1,135 of them have gone to two receivers: Darius Johnson and Cole Beasley. Surprisingly, the two are just 5’10 and 5’9 respectively. What they lack in size however, they make up for in speed and were both key contributors in the impressive win the Mustangs had against UCF last week.
Southern Miss is not shy about scoring points either but prefer to run the ball while complementing with the pass. They put up 63 points against Navy last week and managed to even their attack with 301 passing and 283 rushing. What’s perhaps most impressive was that senior quarterback Austin Davis only had 2 incompletions going 21 for 23 with 3 touchdowns.
This is going to be a great, evenly matched game but I would take SMU strictly because they are getting points. SMU
GAME OF THE WEEK
20Auburn +21 @ 1LSU
Since there has to be a game of the week, I guess an SEC rivalry game involving the number one team in the country is as good as any, but really this matchup lands here by default. LSU is coming off of an official top dog BCS ranking and a no surprise trouncing of Tennessee, but the real story down in Baton Rouge is the one surrounding this year’s breakout star corner Tyrann Mathieu and two other key players. Mathieu, along with fellow cornerback Tharold Simon and Tiger leading rusher Spencer Ware have been suspended for the contest for testing positive for synthetic marijuana. I guess Honey Badger don’t care. And although the Mad Hatter, Coach Les Miles has hinted that all three will be back for the much anticipated heavyweight bout in two weeks against Alabama, there is still speculation as to whether or not that is true. Maybe miles should turn them on to eating grass instead of smoking it.
So will this affect the game? The overall outcome, no, but as far as the line is concerned, these suspensions, compounded with the benching of Auburn Quarterback Barrett Trotter makes this one a little bit more difficult to call. The benching was warranted; in the last two games against Arkansas and Florida, Trotter completed a combined 8 passes for just 114 yards (44 of which came on a screen that broke for a touchdown). Enter sophomore Clint Moseley who looked much more primed to step up and fill Cam Newton’s void in the latter part of that game against Florida and all of a sudden 21 points looks like a lot for LSU to cover. So I will take Michael Dyer and the sputtering Auburn team with the points in a low scoring game. AUBURN
LOCK OF THE WEEK
11Kansas St. -11 @ Kansas
Big line for a rivalry game, but since the Coach Monster Mangino left, the Jayhawks have been flat out terrible. Kansas St. is a LOCK this week. KANSAS STATE
SEF SAM HOLY’S OTHER GAMES
OK St. covers -7 ½ over Mizzou
Clemson covers -11 at home against UNC
Maryland and the points +18 at FSU
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